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In a situation of continued high inflation, political and economic uncertainty, and amid expectations of soft decisions from the Fed, purchases of defensive assets—yen, government bonds, gold—remain very relevant.
Gold quotes are very sensitive to the decisions of the world's largest central banks, especially the Fed on interest rates, but there are growing expectations that at the meeting on May 2, the Fed may take a pause in the monetary policy tightening cycle, despite high inflation, fearing to harm the American economy by pushing it even closer to recession.
The strong bullish momentum in XAU/USD continues, keeping it in the middle of a newly formed range between 2009.00 and 1935.00.
A breakout of the upper limit of this range and the 2009.00 mark will push the pair towards the record high $2070.00 per ounce, recorded in March last year. And the earliest signal to increase long positions in the pair may be on a breakout of the local resistance level 1978.00.
In an alternative scenario, XAU/USD will resume its decline. The first signal to open short positions will be a breakdown of the important short-term support level 1957.00 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), and the confirming one will be a breakdown of the lower boundary of the mentioned range of 1935.00.
However, the downside correction will most likely be limited by support levels 1908.00 (200 EMA on the H4 chart), 1896.00 (50 EMA on the D1 chart and 61.8% Fibonacci in the downtrend from its peak at 2070.00 to its low at 1615.00), near which it is possible to place pending buy orders.
Only a breakdown of the key support levels 1838.00 (144 EMA on the daily chart), 1827.00 (200 EMA on the daily chart), 1800.00 may increase the risks of breaking the long-term bullish trend.
Support levels: 1957.00, 1943.00, 1935.00, 1907.00, 1896.00, 1843.00, 1838.00, 1827.00, 1800.00
Resistance levels: 1978.00, 2000.00, 2009.00, 2070.00
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