26.05.202309:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fed to rely on incoming data to decide future policy

The euro remains in a dismal state and so does the British pound. Neither statements from European politicians calling for further interest rate hikes nor UK statistics indicating a similar approach by the Bank of England have improved the situation.

It is worth noting that members of the US Federal Reserve expressed differing opinions at their latest meeting regarding interest rates. Some members saw the need for further increases, while others expected a slowdown in growth. However, even this did not weaken the position of the US dollar against a range of risk assets.

The decision to raise the key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point was unanimous, but the meeting minutes reflected disagreements about the next step. Just recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed his opinion about the need to pause the rate hiking cycle at the upcoming meeting. Yet, the greenback continued to rise.

It is also worth mentioning that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) responsible for setting rates voted to remove a key phrase from its statement that "additional policy tightening may be appropriate." This indicates that the Fed is now moving towards an approach that relies more heavily on data, where multiple factors will determine whether the rate hike cycle continues or not. This has also been repeatedly noted by Fed representatives.

"In light of the prominent risks to the Committee's objectives with respect to both maximum employment and price stability, participants generally agreed on the importance of closely monitoring incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook," the document states.

Some committee members stated that progress in reducing inflation had been unacceptably slow, necessitating further rate increases. However, there are already those who believe that the slowdown in economic growth due to high interest rates and problems in the banking sector outweigh the need for further tightening of policy.

FOMC officials also devoted some time to discussing issues in the banking sector, as several medium-sized institutions have recently gone bankrupt. Federal Reserve members are ready to continue using all available tools to ensure that the financial system has sufficient liquidity to meet its needs.

The minutes also reflect discussions on raising the debt ceiling. "Many participants mentioned the importance of timely debt ceiling increases to avoid the risk of serious adverse disruptions to the financial system and the economy as a whole," the summary states. However, no decisions have been reached on this issue at the moment, and the markets continue to experience high turbulence as June 1, the time when the Treasury will be unable to meet its debt obligations, is approaching.

As for the technical outlook for EUR/USD, the euro remains under selling pressure. To regain control of the market, bulls need to fight back at 1.0715 and open positions at 1.0760. This will open the way towards the upper target at 1.0790. From there, the price may head for 1.0840 if supported by strong fundamental data in the eurozone. In case of a decline, large market players may step in only at the level of 1.0715. If nothing happens at this level, it would be wise to wait until the price retests the low of 1.0670. Otherwise, long positions can be opened at 1.0630.

Regarding GBP/USD, the pound stays under pressure as well. The instrument may rise only if bulls assert their strength at 1.2360. A breakout of this level may take the price higher to 1.2410. Only then a surge towards 1.2460 will be possible. If the pair depreciates, bears will attempt to regain control over 1.2320. If so, a breakout of this level will trigger stop-loss orders set by the bulls and push the pair to the low of 1.2260, with a possible decline to 1.2220.