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Despite the fairly active movement, nothing much has changed as the pound returned to where it started by the end of the day. Yesterday, everything revolved around the speeches of European Central Bank officials, who confirmed that they will continue to raise interest rates this summer. This became the reason for the renewed strength of both the euro and the pound. However, the same statements also caused them to return to their original positions. The upcoming rate hike is likely to be the last, after which the ECB will gradually lower the interest rates.
It seems that today the situation will remain unchanged, and the market will be looking forward to the Federal Reserve and the ECB meetings, scheduled one day apart next week. Today's economic report will have little impact. The final GDP data for the eurozone may only make a difference if it significantly deviates from the preliminary estimates, but the probability of such an outcome is extremely low. The total number of jobless claims in the United States is expected to increase by only 4,000. These are very insignificant changes that are unlikely to affect market sentiment.
The GBP/USD pair briefly reached the level of 1.2500, and the volume of long positions significantly fell. This action led to a reversal, bringing the quote back to the opening levels of the trading day.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI is moving along the 50 middle line, indicating a stagnant market. Based on the price swing at the beginning of the trading week, we can confirm the flat and the bounce.
On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are intertwined, once again indicating that the price is flat.
Outlook
Although the pound holds above the 1.2450 level, there are no significant changes on the trading chart. However, the sideways price action tends to lean towards an uptrend. Thus, in the event of a retest of the 1.2500 level, there might be a new round of growth in the volume of long positions, which can push the price towards the local June high. As for the bearish scenario, if the exchange rate returns below the 1.2390 level, there may be a new attempt to break the support level at 1.2350.
In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see a mixed technical signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the sideways cycle.
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