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Gold bounced on Friday as expected towards our target of 1,325-30, where the upper boundaries of the short-term downward sloping channel are. These boundaries were our target for a wave 4 upward bounce. This price action is in three waves and we believe that this is just a corrective upward bounce before the price resume the downward trend. In the chart below you can see our Elliott wave count from the top at 1,433.
The current elliott wave count will be canceled only if the price moves inside the price range of 1,355-65 where the low of wave ((1)) is. This count wave anticipates new lows below 1,300 and further weakness to test the 1,272 level, which is intermediate term support.
The daily chart is showing weakeness. The broken trendline has not been back tested as the price fell in an impulsive manner, whereas the upward move from 1,180 is, most probably, a three wave upward pattern, confirming our view that the entire upward move was corrective and the decline that is now under way from 1,433 is a new downward impulsive move. Confirmation of this bearish scenario will come if the price moves down impulsively, and if prices break below 1,180, and if prices do not break above 1,433.
Concluding we remain bearish. Intermediate term stop is at 1,335 and then at 1,360. If the downward move from 1,433 completes 5 waves down, we will have 1,433 as stop.
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