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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement, consolidating above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0437 and testing the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0507. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the U.S. dollar, leading to a decline toward the 1.0437 level. The upward trend channel confirms the bullish sentiment in the market.
The situation with the waves remains clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, while the latest upward wave (still incomplete) has surpassed the previous two peaks. This confirms the completion of the bearish trend. A new downward wave could soon begin forming, but for the bears to establish a new trend, the price needs to return to the 1.0179 level or form a more complex wave structure that takes control.
The information flow on Friday was favorable for the bulls but not outstanding. I believe bullish traders exceeded expectations for both Friday and the entire past week. The euro appreciated too significantly, considering the informational backdrop, which was mostly absent on most days. By information background, I mean economic data. However, it's possible the market was trading "on Trump." If so, trader sentiment will soon depend on this factor.
On Friday, Germany's business activity indices delivered better-than-expected results, as did those for the Eurozone. U.S. indices were also decent but fell short of their European counterparts. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in weaker than traders expected. While the dollar's decline was justified, it was overly strong.
This week will be pivotal, with the ECB and Federal Reserve meetings on the agenda. ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver speeches almost daily, and news from Donald Trump will likely continue to flood in. Thus, there will be ample news, and its influence on trader sentiment will be significant.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0436. This suggests that the upward movement could continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.0603. The euro has also broken above the downward trend channel, indicating a gradual shift to a bullish trend. However, how long this bullish trend will last remains unclear. A bearish divergence on the CCI indicator signals a potential decline in the near term.
In the latest reporting week, professional players opened 4,905 long positions and 6,994 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bearish, suggesting a potential continuation of the pair's decline. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 167,000, while short positions amount to 230,000.
For 18 consecutive weeks, major players have been selling the euro. This signifies a bearish trend without exception. While bulls occasionally dominate for individual weeks, these instances are exceptions rather than the rule. The key driver of the dollar's weakness—expectations of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve—has already been priced in. Unless new reasons to sell the dollar emerge, the U.S. currency's recovery remains more likely.
On January 27, the economic calendar contains just one notable event, but it is significant enough to moderately impact market sentiment.
Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.0437–1.0179 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603–1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.
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