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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, but by the end of the day, it reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 1.2488 – 1.2508 zone. This suggests that the downtrend may continue today and tomorrow, targeting the 1.2363 – 1.2370 support zone.
The wave pattern remains clear. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the last downward wave failed to break the previous low. This suggests that a bullish trend is still forming. However, recent waves have varied significantly in size, making it uncertain whether the trend can continue for another couple of weeks.
The fundamental background on Wednesday provided little support for the bulls, and as the evening approached, traders shifted focus to the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) meeting. The market expects a dovish outcome, with traders anticipating a 0.25% rate cut and an 8-1 vote in favor of monetary policy easing by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
As a result, market participants already have reasons to sell the pound. The key event will be the speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, which will set the direction for future monetary policy. If Bailey signals a readiness to continue easing or expresses concerns about the UK economy, GBP bulls are likely to retreat further.
Recently, the pound has been rising, but the fundamental backdrop does not currently support further gains. However, there is still a possibility that Bailey's tone will not be as dovish as expected. Additionally, if tomorrow's U.S. labor market and unemployment reports turn out weaker than anticipated, the bulls might have another opportunity to counterattack.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair closed above 1.2432 and above the upper boundary of the downward trend channel, which technically suggests that the uptrend may continue toward the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2565. However, on the hourly chart, the strong resistance zone and signs of a bearish reversal indicate that bulls might struggle to maintain control.
There are no emerging divergences on any indicator today.
The COT report continues to indicate a bearish shift in sentiment among non-commercial traders: Long positions decreased by 16,365 and short positions decreased by 2,950. The gap now favors bears: 59,000 long positions vs. 81,000 short positions.
The three-month trend shows that long positions have dropped from 161,000 to 59,000, while short positions have risen from 67,000 to 81,000.
This data suggests that large market participants are continuing to reduce long positions or increase short positions as all possible bullish factors for GBP have already been priced in.
While technical analysis currently signals potential for further growth, corrections should also be expected.
The economic calendar today contains several major market-moving events, and the impact on GBP/USD could be significant.
Sell positions can be considered below the 1.2488 – 1.2508 level, with a target at 1.2363 – 1.2370 (hourly chart). Buy positions can be considered if GBP/USD closes above 1.2488 – 1.2508, targeting 1.2569.
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