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The U.S. dollar is facing downward pressure, which has allowed several risky assets to strengthen, despite the impending trade wars that may affect the global economy in the near future.
The cautious approach of Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy raises several questions. Last week, John Williams, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, stated that he expects U.S. inflation to continue slowing, gradually moving closer to the Fed's 2% target. However, he cautioned that policy uncertainty creates a cloudy economic outlook.
"A moderately restrictive policy stance should support the return to 2% inflation while maintaining sustainable economic growth and labor market conditions," Williams said. "But it's important to note that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain, especially regarding potential fiscal, trade, immigration, and regulatory policies."
Williams highlighted several indicators suggesting that inflation will continue to decline, including slower wage growth and well-anchored inflation expectations. However, he noted that it will take time before the Fed achieves its 2% target on a sustainable basis.
Recent data showing a decline in U.S. retail sales further confirms the economic slowdown at the start of this year. Williams expects price growth to reach around 2.5% this year before gradually falling to 2% in the coming years.
The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged in January after implementing rate cuts in the final months of 2024. Chair Jerome Powell informed lawmakers that the Fed is not in a rush to adjust interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the importance of patience. She stated that it is appropriate to maintain stable interest rates for some time while policymakers await clearer indications of lower inflation and assess the economic impact of new government policies.
Recently, President Donald Trump ordered a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, adding to the 10% tariff on all Chinese imports and previously postponed tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods.
Speaking to reporters after a public event, Williams stated that he would closely monitor price trends to assess the impact of tariffs.
"It all depends on how this affects consumer and intermediate goods," Williams said. "They tend to have more long-term effects on prices as they spread across other goods and services."
Williams also noted that the labor market has cooled significantly in recent years and remains stable. Adjusting for inflation, he expects the U.S. economy to grow by around 2% in 2025 and 2026.
"Right now, we are in a very strong economic position," he said.
Currently, EUR/USD buyers need to focus on breaking through 1.0530. Only this will allow the pair to target 1.0560. From there, an upward move toward 1.0600 could be possible, but it will be challenging without support from large institutional players. The ultimate target is the 1.0634 resistance.
If the pair declines, significant buying interest is expected to be around 1.0485. If no major buyers appear at this level, waiting for a retest of the 1.0445 low would be preferable, or considering opening long positions from 1.0410.
For GBP/USD, pound buyers must break through the nearest resistance at 1.2630. This would allow the pair to target 1.2665, though breaking above this level could prove difficult. The ultimate target is 1.2690.
In a decline, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.2580. If they succeed, a break below this range could deal a significant blow to the bulls, pushing GBP/USD toward the 1.2550 low and potentially extending losses to 1.2515.
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