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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, declining to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0458. A confirmed rebound from this level could support the euro and resume growth toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0533. Conversely, a break below 1.0458 would signal further declines toward 1.0411 and 1.0373.
The hourly chart wave structure has become more ambiguous. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the latest upward wave surpassed the previous peak. This suggests that the trend may have switched back to bullish, or we are witnessing a complex horizontal movement, which is more evident on the 4-hour chart. The inconsistent wave sizes raise doubts about the presence of a clear trend.
The lack of fundamental news on Monday explains the low market activity. Bulls have been pushing the market higher for the past week, but the fundamental backdrop has been mixed. If the U.S. dollar had strengthened instead of the euro, it would not have been surprising given the data.
The 4-hour chart clearly shows a sideways market over recent months, indicating a consolidation phase. This suggests that neither bulls nor bears have a decisive advantage. Therefore, last week's growth could end this week, leading to a decline toward 1.0225, a level from which previous rebounds have occurred.
For a sustained bullish trend, strong fundamental support from the Eurozone would be necessary. However, the EU remains at risk of U.S. import tariffs, which economists warn could be highly detrimental. The Eurozone GDP growth rate is already weak, and additional trade sanctions would slow it further.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has retraced to the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0436 and is holding above it. However, it is evident that the market has remained in a horizontal range throughout 2025. This means that from current levels or slightly higher, the euro may resume its decline. Today, no divergence signals are observed on any indicators.
Over the last reporting week, institutional traders opened 3,040 new long positions and 8,851 new short positions. The Non-commercial group remains bearish, suggesting further declines in EUR/USD.
For 21 consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing their euro positions, reinforcing a long-term bearish trend. Occasionally, bullish weeks occur, but these are exceptions rather than the norm.
The primary driver of dollar weakness—expectations of Fed policy easing—has already been priced in. Unless new bearish catalysts emerge for the dollar, the USD is more likely to strengthen.
Technical analysis also supports the continuation of the long-term bearish trend, leading me to expect further declines in EUR/USD.
Eurozone:
For February 18, the economic calendar contains only two events, both of which hold limited significance for traders. The fundamental impact on market sentiment is expected to be weak.
Short Positions: Selling EUR/USD is possible if the pair consolidates below 1.0458 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0435 and 1.0411.
Long Positions: Buying is possible on a rebound from 1.0458, but the pair is most likely trading within a range on the 4-hour chart, near the upper boundary.
Fibonacci Levels:
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