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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair consolidated above the 1.2931 level on Monday, but the bulls failed to sustain the upward move and retreated. The pair subsequently moved back below the 1.2931 level. The decline may continue today toward the 1.2865 level, but the pound's movement in recent weeks overall resembles a sideways trend. Therefore, I do not expect a drop below 1.2865.
The wave situation is absolutely clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave did surpass the previous high. Thus, a "bullish" trend is currently continuing. The pound has shown very strong growth recently, even though the news background was not strong enough to justify such aggressive buying. However, most traders are reluctant to buy the dollar regardless of economic data, as Donald Trump continues to introduce new tariffs, which could hurt U.S. economic growth and that of many other countries in the future.
The news background on Monday offered no support to either bulls or bears. The UK Services PMI rose, while the Manufacturing PMI declined. In the U.S., the Services PMI rose as well, but the Manufacturing PMI fell. Andrew Bailey, during his speech, did not provide any important or new information. I didn't expect any either, as last week's Bank of England meeting already answered all key questions regarding monetary policy. Today's news background will be extremely weak, and only a few reports from the UK and the U.S. this week are likely to attract traders' attention. Therefore, continued sideways movement seems the most logical outcome for now.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to move within an uptrend. I do not expect a strong drop in the pound until the pair closes below the ascending channel. The CCI indicator has formed another bearish divergence, which, like the previous one, has yet to affect the bulls' position. A bounce from the 1.2994 level suggests a potential decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2861, although the bears may not even reach that point.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators rose by 1,155, while short positions increased by only 946. Bears have lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short positions now stands at nearly 30,000 in favor of the bulls: 96,000 versus 67,000.
In my view, the pound still faces downward risks, but recent developments could push the market into a long-term reversal. Over the last three months, long positions have decreased from 98,000 to 96,000, while shorts fell from 78,000 to 67,000. However, more importantly, in the last seven weeks, longs have increased from 59,000 to 96,000, and shorts have dropped from 81,000 to 67,000. These are the "7 weeks of Trump's leadership"...
News Calendar for the U.S. and UK:
U.S. – New Home Sales (14:00 UTC)
Tuesday's economic calendar includes one entry, which is considered a second-tier report. Therefore, the influence of the news background on market sentiment will be very weak today.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:
Selling the pair was possible on a bounce from the 1.3003 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2931 and 1.2865. The first target has been reached, the second has not. Buying is possible if the pair consolidates above the 1.2931 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3003, but given the current sideways movement, the 1.2931 level is not considered strong.
Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.2809–1.2100 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.
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