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Trade breakdown and trading tips for the British pound
The test of the 1.2792 level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. Scenario #2 for buying from the 1.2756 level did not produce the expected result, as I did not see a quick recovery in the pair during the first half of the day.
Pound sellers made themselves known in the first half of the day after a slight rise in the pair—even in the absence of any significant UK statistics. Considering that market participants are closely monitoring the rhetoric of the central bank, a morning speech by one of the Bank of England's representatives was enough to bring pressure back on the pound.
During the US session, FOMC member Mary Daly will speak, but her remarks are unlikely to have much impact on the US dollar. Investors have already priced in the expected decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting, and their attention is now focused on the future direction of monetary policy. The market is looking for signals as to when the Fed may return to easing, but so far, Trump's tariffs are preventing that. All of this favors the US dollar.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point near 1.2786 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.2860 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2860, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point reversal). It will be difficult to count on a rise in the pound today. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.2733 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.2786 and 1.2860 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.2733 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2668, where I will exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Sellers will likely become active if strong data is released. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.2786 twice consecutively, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.2733 and 1.2668 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you're not applying money management and trading large volumes.
And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan—like the one I've presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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