10.04.202511:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US market rebounds strongly, but Trump's trade war with China remains unresolved

S&P 500

Overview for April 10

US market rebounds strongly, but Trump's trade war with China remains unresolved

Major US indices on Wednesday: Dow +8%, NASDAQ +12%, S&P 500 +9.5%, S&P 500: 4,983, trading range: 4,800–5,700.

It was a blockbuster day for equities. The Nasdaq Composite soared nearly 12%, the S&P 500 jumped 9.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by almost 3,000 points.

The massive rally came after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the newly imposed tariffs, scaling them down to 10% for countries that had refrained from retaliating against the United States.

However, tariffs on Chinese imports were hiked to 125% from 104%. The rebound was driven in part by intense short covering following recent steep declines, coupled with a sharp bounce in mega-cap stocks.

Many of the market's most influential names posted double-digit percentage gains. NVIDIA (NVDA 114.33, +18.03, +18.7%), Apple (AAPL 198.85, +26.43, +15.3%), Tesla (TSLA 272.10, +50.24, +22.6%), Microsoft (MSFT 390.49, +35.93, +10.1%), and Amazon.com (AMZN 191.10, +20.44, +12.0%) — all benefited significantly from a surge in buying activity.

All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with gains of at least 3.9%. Tech led the charge, up 14.2%, followed by consumer discretionary (+11.4%) and communication services (+10.0%).

The April 9 rally was also supported by strong demand at a $39 billion auction of 10-year Treasury notes, particularly from foreign buyers.

The 10-year yield hit 4.50% before settling at 4.40%, still 14 basis points higher than yesterday. Meanwhile, market participants were digesting the FOMC minutes from the March meeting, which reflected growing concerns among Fed members over risks to employment and economic growth, alongside persistent inflation pressures. The minutes received a muted reaction.

Year-to-date:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -4.6%S&P 500: -7.2%S&P Midcap 400: -10.3%Nasdaq Composite: -11.3%Russell 2000: -14.2%

Economic data overview:

MBA weekly mortgage applications index: 20.0% (prior -1.6%)Wholesale inventories in February: 0.3% (consensus 0.3%, prior 0.8%)

Thursday's macroeconomic calendar includes:

8:30 ET: March CPI (consensus 0.1%, prior 0.2%)Core CPI (consensus 0.3%, prior 0.2%)Weekly initial jobless claims (consensus 225,000, prior 219,000)Continuing claims (prior 1.903 million)10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +29 bcf)14:00 ET: March Treasury budget (prior -$307.0 billion)

Energy: Brent crude at $65 – Oil climbed $4 on the back of a sharp rally in US equities and easing fears of a US recession.

However, the key concern, Trump's trade war with China, has only escalated as of Thursday morning. There are still no signs that China is open to negotiations with the United States, despite repeated assertions by both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent that the US is ready for a deal with Beijing. To be fair, it was Washington—and Trump personally—that initiated the trade confrontation virtually out of the blue; there were no immediate actions by China that could have plausibly triggered such an aggressive trade assault.

Conclusion: Heading into yesterday's US market close, we locked in profits from long positions initiated at one-week lows. That move virtually eliminated portfolio drawdowns on US equity holdings. Still, it is recommended to hold positions established earlier. Thanks to yesterday's profit-taking (which remains valid today as the prices are roughly unchanged from Wednesday's close), we now have ample funds to re-enter the US market if another sell-off occurs. As for the broader state of the US market, we believe it has shifted into a range-bound phase. If it approaches one-year highs, it may be prudent to lock in gains. The reason is that Trump's trade war with China remains unresolved, and recession risks persist.