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The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1617, rebounding after retesting the support level it left on May 22 and showing a double-bottom formation. We believe EUR/USD could continue rising until it reaches the upper band of the uptrend channel around 1.1655. However, even if the upward momentum prevails, the instrument may encounter strong resistance around the 200 EMA located at 1.1670.
Given that the euro is within a downtrend channel, the bearish cycle is expected to resume in the coming days. Therefore, we could sell if EUR/USD reaches 1.1655 or 1.1670, with targets at the lower band of the downtrend channel around the psychological level of 1.15.
A decisive break above the downtrend channel and consolidation above the 200 EMA could change the euro's outlook, and we could expect it to reach the 4/8 Murray level at 1.1718 and eventually reach the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1840.
The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal. However, we expect a recovery, after which the euro could resume its bearish cycle.
Our outlook remains bearish for the coming days. As long as EUR/USD settles below 1.1670 and below the 200 EMA, this will be seen as a signal to open short positions at the 3/8 Murray level at 1.1596 and at the psychological level of 1.1500.
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