21.04.202505:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on April 21? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair showed no movement on Friday. It was Good Friday, and Easter Sunday followed. As a result, many countries observed public holidays, and financial markets were closed. Consequently, no trading took place at the interbank level, leading to complete market stagnation. Additionally, there were no macroeconomic or fundamental events on this day.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signal was formed on Friday, and the total daily volatility was only 37 pips. Thus, entering the market made no sense.

Trading Strategy for Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend, although there has been a flat movement over the past week. The upward trend will likely persist if Trump continues to impose and raise import tariffs. The market currently pays attention only to the Global Trade War. When new tariffs are introduced, the dollar falls. The market remains flat when there are no new tariffs, as last week.

On Monday, the pair may continue to trade sideways. We are not making any predictions regarding price movement since news related to trade tensions can emerge anytime. Therefore, the price could "spike" upward again at any time.

In the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be monitored: 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0859–1.0861, 1.0888–1.0896, 1.0940–1.0952, 1.1011, 1.1091, 1.1132–1.1140, 1.1189–1.1191, 1.1275–1.1292, 1.1330, 1.1395–1.1413, 1.1474–1.1483. There will be no additional macroeconomic or fundamental events on Monday compared to Friday. Therefore, volatility may remain low unless Trump announces new tariffs in honor of the Easter holiday.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.