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The wave structure for the GBP/USD pair has also transformed into an upward, impulsive pattern — "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of the EUR/USD pair. Until February 28, we observed the formation of a convincing corrective structure, which raised no concerns. However, after that, demand for the U.S. dollar began to decline sharply. As a result, an upward structure of five waves was formed. Wave 2 took a single-wave form and has been completed. Therefore, a strong rise in the pound should now be expected within the framework of wave 3, and this is what we have been observing for three weeks.
If we consider the fact that the news background from the United Kingdom had no impact on the pound's strong growth, we can conclude that exchange rates are being driven solely by Donald Trump. If (theoretically) Trump's trade policy course changes, it is possible that the trend will change as well — this time downward. Thus, in the coming months (and possibly years), close attention must be paid to all actions taken by the White House.
The GBP/USD rate rose by 30 basis points on Monday, but overall, it has been trading horizontally for several days now. I have already mentioned the formula: "No news from Trump – no movement," and it applies to the pound as well. At the same time, the pound sterling is growing, if you can put it that way, "quietly." While the market is openly resting and waiting for new "explosive" news from the American president, the pound is gradually appreciating. Why not, if there is demand?
The pound is rising despite the complete absence of positive news from the United Kingdom itself. The political crisis in the country has been resolved with the arrival of the Labour Party, but the economic situation has not significantly improved. Every month we see that GDP growth rates are disappointing, business activity remains weak, and the unemployment rate is rising. The UK is not on Trump's list of countries he is angry with, but tariffs will still affect it. Therefore, in 2025, only an economic slowdown can be expected from Britain. Of course, the U.S. economy will also slow down — and much more significantly than the British economy. The U.S. economy will have to withstand all the sanctions imposed by Trump and all the retaliatory tariffs. Britain, on the other hand, will only have to deal with its own tariffs, which, by the way, are relatively low. Thus, I can understand the market's actions in gradually buying the pound. The United Kingdom looks safer and more stable in terms of economic slowdown or "war against Trump" than the European Union or China. The Bank of England is not rushing to ease monetary policy in 2025, which also contributes to the pound's strengthening. The pound is making full use of the current situation.
The wave pattern for the GBP/USD pair has changed. We are now dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Unfortunately, with Donald Trump in power, the markets may experience many more shocks and reversals that do not align with wave markings or any type of technical analysis. The presumed wave 2 has been completed, as prices have surpassed the peak of wave 1. Therefore, an upward wave 3 should now be developing, with near-term targets at 1.3345 and 1.3541. Of course, it would be very desirable to see a corrective wave 2 within wave 3, but for that, the dollar would have to strengthen... And for that to happen, someone would have to start buying it...
On the higher wave scale, the wave pattern has also changed. We can now assume the development of an upward segment of the trend. The nearest targets are 1.2782 and 1.2650.
Basic Principles of My Analysis:
Díky analytickým přehledům společnosti InstaForex získáte plné povědomi o tržních trendech! Jako zákazníkovi společnosti InstaForex je Vám k dispozici velký počet bezplatných služeb umožňujících efektivní obchodování.
