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As expected, the Federal Reserve left its monetary policy unchanged following yesterday's meeting. Jerome Powell only slightly reinforced the market's expectations of rising inflation. Markets still anticipate the first rate cut in July, which is expected to coincide with the Treasury's launch of a new debt issuance cycle (at this point, Trump is likely to convince Congress to raise the debt ceiling without difficulty).
Today, important data from Germany is due. The trade balance for March is expected to rise from €17.7 billion to €19.0 billion, and industrial production is forecast to show a 0.9% increase for the same month.
The technical picture for the euro also supports a bullish outlook. On the daily chart, we see a test of support with Tuesday's low, while Wednesday's black candle failed to reach this support. This morning, the price resumed its upward movement. A move by the Marlin oscillator into positive territory would confirm further growth.
Three growth targets are 1.1420, 1.1535, and 1.1692 (October 2021 high). From that perspective, the current 1.1276–1.1420 range appears to be a consolidation zone before continuing a medium-term upward trend.
On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has formed a brief consolidation and is now preparing to enter the bullish zone. However, the balance line indicator currently acts as resistance, with the MACD line at 1.1360 being the next resistance level. Strong German data may help the price break through these technical barriers.
If the price consolidates below the 1.1276 support level, an alternative scenario involving a decline toward the 1.1110–1.1150 zone remains possible.
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