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The wave structure on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, but the last completed upward wave broke the previous peak. Thus, the trend remains "bullish" despite some signs of a reversal. The latest news about potential tariff increases on steel and aluminum caused the bears to retreat once again.
The news background on Wednesday was disastrous for the bears. Recall that over the past few weeks, bears have made several attempts to reverse the trend, but every time, the news background prevented it. As soon as the market began hoping for de-escalation in the trade war, Trump immediately raised tariffs. Just as China and the U.S. agreed to lower tariffs for 90 days for negotiations, Trump lashed out at Beijing again. Just as traders began to count on overturning Trump's tariffs in court, another court overturned the decision of the first. And yesterday, the economic backdrop consisted of three reports, each supporting the bulls. Today, the ECB meeting will take place, and traders are certain that monetary policy will be eased again. However, this factor currently plays no significant role for traders. The rate cut has been anticipated since last week, and the bears have failed to take advantage of it. Today, the bulls may retreat slightly, but I do not expect a close below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1213 and continued its upward move toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1495. A rebound from the 1.1495 level would favor the U.S. dollar and trigger a slight decline, while a consolidation above this level would increase the chances of continued growth toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1851. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator. The trend channel again signals that the "bullish" trend remains intact.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Over the last reporting week, professional players closed 1,716 long positions and 6,737 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 204,000, while short positions total 124,000, with the gap (with rare exceptions) constantly widening. Thus, the euro remains in demand, while the dollar does not. The situation remains unchanged.
For seventeen consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. The divergence in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the U.S. dollar due to the widening interest rate differential. However, Donald Trump's policies remain a more significant factor for traders, as they could trigger a recession in the U.S. economy and numerous long-term structural issues.
News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:
The economic calendar for June 5 includes three entries, two of which can be considered important. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday could be moderate, as ECB meetings do not happen every day.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:
Selling the pair was possible on a rebound from the 1.1454 level with targets at 1.1374–1.1380 and 1.1320. The first target was reached, but the second was not. Buying was recommended on a rebound from the 1.1320 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1374–1.1380. If the price closes above the 1.1374–1.1380 zone, positions can be held with a target of 1.1454.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.
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