16.06.202519:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 16th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Euro Trading Tips

The test of the 1.1570 level in the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator having already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro and stayed out of the market.

Today's strengthening of the euro in the first half of trading was linked to news of slowing inflation in Italy, which reduced the likelihood of the European Central Bank easing monetary policy anytime soon. However, this positive momentum failed to gain traction. The second half of the day may pass without any significant movements, as the Empire Manufacturing Index data is unlikely to impact the currency market. It's better to closely monitor developments in the Middle East and react to any incoming news. In times of heightened geopolitical instability, second-tier economic indicators like Empire Manufacturing become less important. Markets become extremely sensitive to news from conflict zones and react instantly to even minor changes in the rhetoric of key players.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the entry point around 1.1588 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.1634. At 1.1634, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. A continuation of the morning's upward trend may support euro gains. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1564 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. An increase to the opposite levels of 1.1588 and 1.1634 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1564 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1528, where I will exit the market and open a buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure may return to the pair at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1588 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A drop to the opposite levels of 1.1564 and 1.1528 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the expected level for placing Take Profit orders or closing trades manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the expected level for placing Take Profit orders or closing trades manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it's important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions with extreme caution. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan—like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.