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Trade Analysis and Guidance for the Euro
A price test at 1.1597 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero line, which enabled a short-selling scenario to play out and led to a 10-point drop, after which pressure eased.
Mixed IFO figures from Germany put some pressure on EUR/USD but did not lead to a significant decline. The May Business Climate Index slightly missed expectations, and the current conditions assessment was also weaker than forecast, although the economic expectations index slightly exceeded projections. This data presents a contradictory picture of the German economy. EUR/USD reacted relatively calmly, suggesting the market may have already priced in some of the negative news from Germany. Additionally, investors are still closely monitoring developments in the Middle East.
In the second half of the day, market focus will shift to the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. These events will undoubtedly influence EUR/USD fluctuations. The Consumer Confidence Index is a key barometer of American consumer spending sentiment, which in turn affects economic growth. Powell's speech will be of particular importance, as investors will be analyzing it for any hints of monetary policy easing.
Given the connection between economic indicators, central bank statements, and currency fluctuations, traders are advised to monitor incoming information carefully and be prepared for heightened market volatility.
For the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1:Buy the euro today upon reaching the level around 1.1621 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1684. At 1.1684, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong euro rally is more likely after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.1589 level occur while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. A rise to 1.1621 and 1.1684 may follow.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1589 (red line on the chart), with a target at 1.1519, where I plan to exit and buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move back up. Selling pressure will return if U.S. data is strong.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.1621 level occur while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the upward potential and trigger a market reversal to the downside. A decline toward 1.1569 and 1.1519 may follow.
What's on the Chart:
Important Note for Beginners:
Forex beginners should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of key fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can lead to rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if you're not applying risk management and trading with large volumes.
Remember: Successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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