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Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Euro
The price test at 1.1690 occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to rise from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair climbed to the target level of 1.1741. Selling from that point brought in about 20 points in profit.
Following Trump's remarks criticizing Powell, yesterday's uptrend continued. The lack of significant economic data from the eurozone also contributed to the further rise of EUR/USD. However, by midday, the initial enthusiasm began to fade—likely because traders were taking profits ahead of several key U.S. macroeconomic reports.
First to be published are Q1 GDP figures—key data for assessing the overall macroeconomic outlook and economic growth. That will be followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a crucial inflation indicator. An increase in the PCE may prompt the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see stance, which would likely trigger further criticism from Trump and weigh on the U.S. dollar. The day's data releases will conclude with the number of initial jobless claims and changes in durable goods orders.
As for intraday strategy, I'll rely primarily on the execution of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1:Buy the euro at around 1.1720 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.1772. At 1.1772, I plan to exit the market and consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong euro rally is likely only if GDP data disappoints. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1690 level, with the MACD in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward 1.1720 and 1.1772 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1690 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1623, where I will exit the market and buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point rebound). Strong U.S. data could bring pressure back onto the pair. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1720 twice in a row while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would cap the upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A drop to 1.1690 and then to 1.1623 can be expected.
drop to 1.1690 and then to 1.1623 can be expected.
Chart Legend:
Important for Beginners
Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making trading decisions. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid being caught in sharp price movements. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to limit losses. Without stop-losses, your entire deposit could be wiped out quickly—especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market movement is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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