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The American news background will once again play a key role for the dollar and, therefore, for the market and the vast majority of instruments. This past week, only two events triggered a new wave of selling in the U.S. currency. First, the conflict in the Middle East came to an end (for the time being), and then a new round of pressure was placed on Jerome Powell. Both events were connected, in one way or another, to Donald Trump, which is why the U.S. president will remain the main newsmaker.
There will also be no shortage of economic news next week. A new month is beginning, which means that the U.S. will release labor market and unemployment data. Let me remind you that the Federal Reserve closely monitors the labor market and is prepared to intervene (i.e., cut interest rates) if signs of cooling emerge. Therefore, this data is very important for the U.S. dollar. Already next year, we may see a significant rate cut due to a change in Fed leadership. The more news suggesting a shift toward policy easing, the greater the risk of a decline in the dollar.
On Tuesday, Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak again, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published. On Wednesday, we will see the ADP employment report, which often sparks interest. On Friday, the focus will be on the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate.
Based on all of the above, Trump's news will once again take center stage, followed by economic data. There's no doubt that the U.S. will deliver plenty of important headlines. The wave structures of both instruments allow for a transition to a corrective wave set, but a negative news background for the dollar could result in the extension and complication of the current bullish wave segment.
Based on the analysis of the EUR/USD pair, I conclude that it continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background, particularly related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, and there are still no positive developments. The targets for wave 3 could extend up to the 1.2500 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buy positions with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but currently, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Trump, the markets may still face numerous shocks and reversals, which could significantly impact the wave structure; however, for now, the working scenario remains intact. Trump continues to take steps that undermine the demand for the dollar. The targets for the ascending wave 3 are now located around the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to the 261.8% Fibonacci extension from the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.
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