30.06.202512:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trump's Tax Plan to Increase U.S. Deficit by Nearly $3.3 Trillion

According to a new assessment by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the Senate's latest version of President Donald Trump's tax and spending package would increase the U.S. deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over the next decade.

The report states that the bill would reduce revenues by $4.5 trillion and cut spending by $1.2 trillion by 2034 compared to the current baseline legislation. At the request of Republicans, the Senate bill was also scored as saving $507.6 billion over ten years relative to current policy.

These figures clearly illustrate the scale of the proposed changes. A $4.5 trillion revenue reduction over ten years is a significant sum that will undoubtedly affect the funding of various government programs and initiatives. A natural question arises as to which sectors will be impacted first and how this will affect social support, infrastructure development, and other critical areas. The $1.2 trillion spending reduction is also notable and warrants careful analysis to determine which budget items will be cut and whether such cuts are justified in terms of policy priorities and effectiveness. It's important to understand that spending cuts do not always lead to improved outcomes, especially when they result in lower service quality or reduced living standards for certain segments of the population.

The bill's cost has become a major concern for conservatives. It has encountered several obstacles in the Senate, as lawmakers demanded conflicting revisions. Some proposed spending cuts had to be altered because they failed to comply with Senate reconciliation rules. Democrats and some economists argue that using the current policy baseline allows Republican lawmakers to bypass rules that would otherwise limit the bill's fiscal impact. According to them, this threatens the country's fiscal trajectory. "Republicans can use all the budget gimmicks they want to make the math work on paper," said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Sunday. "But you can't hide the real consequences of adding tens of trillions to the debt."

The cost of the Senate version surpasses the projected $2.8 trillion price tag of the House version passed last month, which also accounted for the economic impact and higher interest rates caused by the increased debt load.

So far, House and Senate Republicans have only reached agreement on modifying the federal deduction cap for state and local taxes. That cap will remain at $40,000, as stipulated in the House bill, but will apply for five years instead of ten.

As for the current technical outlook on EUR/USD, buyers now need to gain control of the 1.1745 level. Only then can they aim for a test of 1.1775. From there, a move toward 1.1810 becomes possible, though doing so without strong institutional support will be difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1865 level. In case of a decline, I expect major buyers to become active near the 1.1690 area. If no demand emerges there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of the 1.1645 low or to consider long positions from 1.1590.

As for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3745. Only this would open the way toward 1.3790, although breaking above that level could be quite challenging. The ultimate target lies in the 1.3820 level. If the pair declines, bears will try to regain control at 1.3710. A successful breakout below this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to the 1.3678 low, with the prospect of further decline toward 1.3640.