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The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several months. The formation of an upward trend segment continues, and the news background continues to support all currencies except the U.S. dollar. The trade war launched by Donald Trump was intended to boost budget revenues and reduce the trade deficit. However, these targets have yet to be achieved, trade deals are being signed with great difficulty, and Trump's "One Big Law" will increase the U.S. national debt by 3 trillion dollars in the coming years. The market currently has a very low opinion of Trump's first six months in office and views his actions as a threat to American stability and prosperity.
At the moment, wave 3 is presumably still forming, and it may become much more extended than it is now. However, its internal structure has taken the form of five waves and therefore could already be complete. If the current wave layout is correct, then the rise in quotes should continue in the coming months, but in the short term, we may see the formation of a corrective wave set. The U.S. currency will remain under pressure only if Donald Trump does not reverse his trade policy by 180 degrees. There is little chance of that — but Trump is a highly unpredictable president.
The EUR/USD rate declined by several dozen basis points on Monday, which has no impact on the wave pattern. The last six months have taught traders that the dollar rises only to fall even more sharply afterward. If the news background supports the dollar, it doesn't necessarily mean anything, as the market can easily ignore any reports, news, or speeches. Let me remind you that over the past six months, the dollar has had plenty of reasons to be in demand. However, only the market decides whether to buy the dollar or not — and the market chooses not to buy, so no news helps.
On Monday, as mentioned earlier, the U.S. dollar rose slightly. Economists were quick to attribute this to statements made by Scott Bessent. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said today that some countries are very close to finalizing trade deals with the U.S., and in the coming days, major agreements will be signed. Of course, that could be a reason to celebrate — but how many similar announcements have we heard in recent months? Every few days, Donald Trump says that brilliant trade deals will be signed soon. And as of July 7, only three such agreements have been signed. So don't be surprised if tomorrow it turns out the deals were with Liechtenstein, Kenya, and Iceland.
Based on this, I believe there is no reason for optimism. The wave pattern continues to suggest that a five-wave upward structure is nearing completion, so at the moment, only the wave pattern clearly points downward. Therefore, the U.S. dollar can only count on support from wave analysis — but not from Donald Trump.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news background associated with Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, and there are still no positive developments. The targets of wave 3 may extend all the way to the 1.25 level. Accordingly, I continue to consider long positions with targets around the 1.1875 level, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level. In the near future, a corrective wave set is likely to form, and I will look to buy euros again after this correction is complete.
Key principles of my analysis:
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