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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 145.62 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the dollar's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.
The tariffs announced yesterday by Donald Trump against Japan put pressure on the yen and led to a strengthening of the dollar. The only positive aspect in this situation, if it can be called that, is the postponement of these tariffs from July 9 to August 1. This temporary relief allowed markets to briefly catch their breath, but the long-term uncertainty created by U.S. protectionist policy remains. Investors are now carefully analyzing the potential consequences for the Japanese economy, especially for export-oriented industries, which may suffer significantly from the new tariffs.
Positive figures on Japan's bank lending and current account balance helped stop the yen's decline against the dollar, but this is likely a temporary development, and USD/JPY is expected to continue rising in the near future.
As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Scenarios
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 146.19 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 146.59 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 146.59, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). It is best to return to buying the pair on pullbacks and significant declines in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 145.89 level, when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 146.19 and 146.59 can be expected.
Sell Scenarios
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below 145.89 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 145.53, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point pullback). Strong downward pressure on the pair is unlikely today. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 146.19 level, when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 145.89 and 145.53 can be expected.
Chart Notes:
Important: Beginner Forex traders must make very cautious decisions when entering the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.
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