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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several consecutive months. The formation of the upward trend section continues, and the news background continues to support all currencies except the dollar. The trade war launched by Donald Trump was intended to increase government revenues and eliminate the trade deficit. However, these targets have not been achieved: trade deals are signed only under pressure, and Trump's "One Big Law" is projected to increase U.S. national debt by 3 trillion dollars in the coming years. The market has a very low opinion of Trump's first six months, viewing his actions as a threat to American stability and prosperity.
Currently, wave 3 is presumably still developing, and it could take on a much more extended form than it currently appears. However, its internal structure now resembles a five-wave formation and may therefore be complete. If this assumption holds, price growth is likely to continue in the coming months, but in the short term, we can expect the development of a corrective wave sequence. The chances of Trump abandoning his trade policies are close to zero.
The EUR/USD pair declined by 70 basis points on Tuesday. However, market volatility this week has been very low. This is somewhat strange given the presence of a significant news backdrop. Recall that last week, Donald Trump began sending out "warning letters" to trade partners, notifying them of new tariffs on imported goods. So far, the revised tariffs affect 25 countries. Yet neither last week nor this week has the market shown any notable reaction to this news. In the past, each new tariff announcement triggered a sharp decline in demand for the U.S. dollar. Now, however, the market seems indifferent.
One might assume that the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario of a global trade war, which would mean the dollar has fully absorbed this factor. But in that case, we would be seeing increased demand for the U.S. dollar — which is not happening. Instead, we've seen stagnant movement this week. Therefore, I conclude that the market is in a state of temporary calm, and the trade war is still not fully priced into the dollar's exchange rate.
Today, U.S. inflation data for June was released. As expected, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.4% year-over-year to 2.7%. Market expectations matched the actual inflation figure, yet the dollar still gained about 70 points. The inflation increase confirms that Jerome Powell's forecast is coming true. The Fed Chair had warned against drawing early conclusions about low inflation, arguing that Trump's tariffs had "yet to fully impact the economy." Over the past three months, inflation has been accelerating — validating Powell's stance. Personally, I found that obvious from the beginning.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to build an upward trend segment. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news background linked to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, with no positive developments in sight. The targets for this trend segment could extend up to the 1.2500 level. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities, with targets around 1.1875, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and higher. In the near term, a corrective wave sequence is expected, so new euro purchases should be made only after this correction is complete.
Core Principles of My Analysis:
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