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The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulsive wave pattern. The wave picture is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD, since the only "main driver" remains the U.S. dollar. Medium-term demand for the dollar is falling across the market, so many instruments are showing almost identical dynamics. At present, a corrective wave set within wave 4 is unfolding. If this assumption is correct, the downward movement may already be complete, as the structure has taken on a classic, well-formed three-wave shape.
It's important to remember that much of what happens in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies — not just trade-related ones. From time to time, decent news comes out of the U.S., but the market remains focused on the overall uncertainty in the economy, Trump's contradictory decisions and statements, and the White House's hostile and protectionist stance. In the coming weeks, the market will have to piece together a complex puzzle of mixed GDP, inflation, and labor market data, new tariffs, and nuclear threats from Trump.
The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday. The Bank of England adopted a dovish decision by cutting the interest rate for the third time this year, which should have reduced demand for the pound. However, we saw the opposite reaction — something I warned about yesterday.
First and foremost, the BoE implemented the baseline scenario, so the markets had already priced it in. Second, while the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions are certainly important, the market is far more focused on the upcoming Fed rate cuts and other global issues, which have a much greater impact on the world economy (and thus the dollar). Third, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote outcome differed from market expectations.
Market participants had anticipated that at least seven out of nine MPC members would vote in favor of the rate cut. However, only five votes supported the dovish decision. This means the MPC was less dovish than expected.
Personally, I had doubts that the BoE would cut rates at all. In my view, there simply isn't enough justification for such a move right now. Inflation is rising, and the sluggish growth of the British economy is not in itself a reason to cut rates when inflation is accelerating. The UK has been dealing with low economic growth for several years now, if not longer. Therefore, it's hard to argue that the BoE has suddenly become proactive about the economy. Since four BoE members opposed the rate cut, the market now assumes that there will be a prolonged pause following the August meeting. If inflation continues to accelerate toward 4% or higher, the Bank of England will have no reason to shift further toward a dovish policy. Meanwhile, the Fed may resume its easing cycle in September, and there are concerns that the rate will begin to fall rapidly from that point.
The wave structure for GBP/USD remains intact. We are dealing with an upward impulsive segment of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could significantly impact the wave picture, but for now, the working scenario remains valid. The target for this upward segment is now located around 1.4017. At this time, I assume that the formation of downward wave 4 is complete, so I expect the resumption of upward wave formation and consider buying positions with a target of 1.4017.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
Díky analytickým přehledům společnosti InstaForex získáte plné povědomi o tržních trendech! Jako zákazníkovi společnosti InstaForex je Vám k dispozici velký počet bezplatných služeb umožňujících efektivní obchodování.
