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The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months, which is very encouraging. Even when corrective waves form, the structure's integrity is preserved, allowing for accurate forecasts. It is worth noting that wave patterns do not always look like textbook examples.
The bullish phase of the trend continues, and the news background is largely supportive of currencies other than the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump is ongoing. The confrontation with the Fed continues. Dovish expectations are rising. Trump's "one big law" will increase the U.S. national debt by 3 trillion dollars, and the U.S. president continues to raise tariffs and introduce new ones. The market has a rather low opinion of the results of Trump's first six months, despite GDP growth reaching 3% in the second quarter.
At present, it can be assumed that wave 4 is complete. If so, the formation of impulse wave 5 has begun, with potential targets extending up to the 1.25 level. Of course, the corrective structure of wave 4 could develop into a longer five-wave form, but I proceed from the most likely scenario.
The EUR/USD rate rose by several dozen basis points on Tuesday, but it could grow much stronger before the end of the day. Today's inflation report overshadowed all other data, even though it was largely formal. Let me explain. The Fed will almost certainly cut interest rates in September under any circumstances — and most likely not only in September. The U.S. labor market has now become the top priority, replacing inflation in importance. Therefore, almost any July consumer price reading would not have changed the situation.
Inflation data for July showed no acceleration, even if it had increased to 2.9% year-on-year, this would have had minimal impact on the overall outlook. The lack of acceleration reinforces the market's assessment that Donald Trump's position is currently more accurate than that of Jerome Powell. The expectation remains that inflation will rise by the end of the year, although it is possible that the trade tariffs have not yet produced a measurable effect.
In any case, the Consumer Price Index did not increase in July, giving the Fed even more reason to resume its monetary easing cycle. If inflation does not accelerate in the coming months (or does so only slightly), the FOMC could decide to cut rates at every meeting. Consequently, demand for the U.S. dollar could continue to decline on this basis. The wave pattern also fully supports further development of the bullish phase of the trend, meaning that both the news background and wave analysis are pointing in the same direction.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair continues to develop a bullish phase of the trend. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news background linked to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Trend targets may extend up to the 1.25 level. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions with targets around 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, and higher. I assume that wave 4 has been completed. Accordingly, this is a good time to buy.
Key principles of my analysis:
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