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Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The price test of 146.31 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly down from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.
In the second half of the day, attention will be focused on the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI). This indicator serves as a key barometer of inflationary pressure in the economy, as it reflects the dynamics of prices received by producers for goods they manufacture. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices paid by end consumers, the PPI shows price changes at the production stage. Recently, more companies have been attempting to pass their costs on to the end consumer, so this figure will be particularly important in the context of the overall inflation picture.
A speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin will also be of particular interest. He is known for his balanced approach and willingness to seek compromise. His assessment of the current situation and forecasts for the Fed's future actions could play a decisive role in reaching consensus within the committee, which is already divided into two camps. Market participants will closely follow his remarks to determine in which direction the majority opinion is leaning.
As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 146.84 (green line on the chart) with a target at 147.42 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.42, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point move down from that level. A strong rally in the pair today is unlikely. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 146.42 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 146.84 and 147.42 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 146.42 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 145.70, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25-point move upward. Downward pressure on the pair is expected to persist today within the framework of a bearish market. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 146.84 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A drop toward the opposite levels of 146.42 and 145.70 can be expected.
Chart Legend:
Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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