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For GBP/USD, the wave structure still indicates the development of an upward impulse sequence. The wave pattern is almost identical to EUR/USD, since the only "driver of the show" remains the dollar. Demand for it is declining across the market (in the medium term), which is why many instruments are showing almost the same dynamics. At this stage, wave 4 appears to be complete. If that is the case, the instrument's rise will continue within impulse wave 5. Wave 4 could take the form of a five-wave structure, but this is not the most likely scenario.
It should be remembered that much on the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies, not only trade-related. From time to time, good news comes out of the U.S., but the market constantly keeps in mind economic uncertainty, contradictory decisions and statements by Trump, and the White House's hostile and protectionist stance. Global tensions are rising and, as I already mentioned, the dollar remains the main culprit—hence it takes most of the "hits."
The GBP/USD rate on Wednesday again showed almost no change, with weak movements. This phenomenon is explained by the virtually empty news background this week. The first noteworthy report was released today, but it failed to impress market participants. The UK Consumer Price Index continues to rise, and at first glance, it is difficult to explain why. For example, in the Eurozone, with much lower interest rates, inflation is not increasing. In the U.S., however, inflation is rising despite much higher rates. Thus, it can be concluded that each economy responds very individually to the global trade war.
The inflation report itself could have increased demand for the pound. If inflation is rising faster than markets expected, it means expectations for Bank of England monetary easing are reduced. At the same time, expectations for Federal Reserve easing have been running high for the past year and a half. Therefore, the U.S. currency still has very little growth potential.
I also note the slightly updated wave count. We saw a convincing, classic three-wave corrective structure forming wave 4. Then came an increase in quotes, which could represent wave 1 of 5. If this assumption is correct, wave 2 of 5 is currently unfolding. Accordingly, this or next week, a new upward move may be expected, potentially prolonged, since wave 3s are often the most extended in impulse structures. In my view, Powell's speech may support sellers, as I see no strong reasons for him to signal a rate cut in September. I believe Mr. Powell will take a cautious stance without direct hints of resuming the monetary easing cycle.
The GBP/USD wave picture remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward impulse section of the trend. Under Donald Trump, the markets may still face many shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave picture, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the upward section of the trend are now near 1.4017. At this stage, I assume that downward wave 4 has been completed. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target at 1.4017.
Basic principles of my analysis:
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