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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 1.1637–1.1645 zone and continued its upward move, as I expected. The rebound from the 76.4% retracement level – 1.1695 worked in favor of the U.S. currency and triggered a new decline, which fully fits within the current sideways range. Horizontal movement in recent weeks is clearly visible on both the hourly and the 4-hour charts. A close above 1.1695 would allow traders to expect further growth toward the next 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level – 1.1789.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous lows, while the last upward wave broke nearly all recent highs. Thus, at present the trend may shift back to "bullish," but the probability of a sideways market also remains. The latest labor market data and changing Fed monetary policy expectations support the bulls.
On Thursday, there were few economic reports, and traders showed no interest in them. The second estimate of U.S. GDP for the second quarter showed even stronger growth at 3.3%. Thus, the bears had an opportunity to mount at least a sideways attack, but the bulls continued to press higher, trying to reach the approximate upper boundary of the horizontal channel. Now, after a rebound from this boundary, a decline toward the lower boundary can be expected—especially since today's news background will again be weak. In my view, it is premature to discuss the pair's prospects until the sideways phase is over. Certainly, most traders are anticipating a new decline in the U.S. dollar, and there are logical reasons for this. However, I prefer not to speculate when it is possible to wait for clear signals. Next week will show what to expect from the Fed at its upcoming meeting, and then conclusions can be drawn.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned down again in favor of the U.S. currency and closed below 1.1680. This level has been crossed frequently in recent times, so I do not recommend paying much attention to it. The picture on the hourly chart is far more informative and clear, and there are more levels. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator. The 4-hour chart also clearly shows the sideways trend.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional players opened 6,420 long positions and 3,106 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and has been strengthening over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 253,000, compared to 134,000 short positions—a nearly two-to-one gap. Also, note the number of green cells in the table above, which reflect strong increases in positions on the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar declines.
For 28 consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and adding longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for the U.S. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, some key economic indicators continue to decline.
News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
The August 29 economic calendar contains five entries, none of which are important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be weak.
EUR/USD forecast and trader tips:
Sales of the pair were possible after a close below 1.1695 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.1637–1.1645 and 1.1590. Purchases could have been opened after a rebound from 1.1590 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1695. That target was also achieved. New sales were possible after a rebound from 1.1695. New purchases can be considered after a rebound from the 1.1637–1.1645 zone or after a close above 1.1695.
Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.
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