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For GBP/USD, the wave structure continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulse sequence. The wave picture is almost identical to EUR/USD, since the only real driver remains the dollar. Demand for the U.S. currency is declining across the market (in the medium term), so many instruments are showing nearly the same dynamics. At this point, wave 4 is presumably complete. If so, the instrument's rise will continue within impulse wave 5. Wave 4 could still take on a five-wave form, but this is not the most likely scenario.
It should be remembered that much on the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies—not only trade-related ones. From time to time, positive news comes out of the U.S., but the market remains dominated by uncertainty, contradictory decisions and statements from Trump, and the White House's hostile and protectionist stance. Global tensions remain, and the U.S. economy continues to face difficulties.
The GBP/USD pair showed no change on Tuesday, but at least one important event is still ahead before the end of the day. Today, I would focus entirely on two things: the wave structure and the annual Nonfarm Payrolls report. In my view, Nonfarm Payrolls are not just important (for obvious reasons) but the only meaningful event on Tuesday. Of course, revisions to this report are unlikely to be dramatic. If the actual number of jobs created over the past year turns out 20,000 fewer, few market participants will be overly concerned. However, the market does not appear to be considering an upward revision at all, which clearly reflects expectations for the U.S. economy. In other words, the market is still not inclined to buy the dollar, as no positive changes are expected.
On the other hand, we have the wave structure. If one assumes it is incorrect on a global level, let us then consider the simplest wave forms. We have seen a standard three-wave a-b-c structure, which cannot be anything other than a correction. Consequently, a new impulse trend segment lies ahead. Within wave 2 of this segment, three waves are clearly visible, confirming the validity of the current marking—wave 2 also formed a classic correction. From this perspective, the Nonfarm Payrolls report may help the instrument continue building wave 3, which presumably belongs to the larger wave 5. If the report is not as weak as many expect, demand for the U.S. dollar may briefly rise, but I do not anticipate a break in the current wave structure. More than one favorable report would be needed for that. Also, it should be noted that the annual report cannot negate the last four monthly reports. Therefore, the market's negative sentiment regarding U.S. labor data will persist.
The wave picture for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish impulse segment of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may still face numerous shocks and reversals, which could significantly affect the wave picture, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. Targets for the bullish segment are now around 1.4017. At this stage, I assume the corrective wave 4 has been completed. Wave 2 within wave 5 may also be complete. Therefore, I still recommend buying with a target of 1.4017.
Key principles of my analysis:
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