22.09.202521:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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Uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's next monetary steps continues to weigh on the yen. At the same time, worries surrounding the UK's fiscal outlook and diverging monetary policy expectations between the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are causing bullish market participants to act cautiously.

Today, the GBP/JPY pair attracted buyers around the key psychological level of 199.00, starting from the Asian session, halting the correction after a pullback from the July 2024 high. Spot prices rose about 0.15% on the day, supported by broad-based weakness in the Japanese yen, although the upward potential appears limited.

Despite the Bank of Japan's decision on Friday to pause interest rate hikes — while leaving the door open for a hawkish move later this year — investors remain concerned that political instability and economic headwinds, particularly those linked to U.S. tariffs, could force the central bank to delay further tightening. This, combined with positive momentum in stock markets, reduces the yen's appeal as a safe-haven currency and supports the GBP/JPY pair rate.

Nevertheless, increasing awareness that the Bank of Japan is committed to policy normalization is discouraging traders from aggressively shorting the yen. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's hawkish tone stands in stark contrast to the Bank of England's dovish outlook, which includes prospects of further rate cuts. Rising geopolitical tensions may also limit yen weakness and slow the GBP/JPY pair's upward march. Meanwhile, the British pound faces headwinds due to renewed concerns over the UK's fiscal outlook.

Overall U.S. dollar strength — despite today's minor pullback — also exerts pressure on the British pound, further capping the growth momentum of the GBP/JPY pair.

In this context, it would be prudent to wait for sustained buying activity before expecting a return to a solid uptrend.

From a technical perspective, the fact that prices have held above the psychological 199.00 level and remain above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), along with the positive readings on daily oscillators, signals that the pair is not ready to retreat yet.

The nearest resistance is found between the 9-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), near the 199.70 level. A breakout above this range may lead to a move toward the key psychological level of 200.00. Above that, the pair will once again face familiar barriers at 200.35 and 200.75, to the 201.00 level — beyond which lies the monthly high.

On the other hand, if prices fall below the psychological level of 199.00 and fail to hold above the 50-day SMA, the next likely support is around the 198.00 level.

The table below shows today's percentage changes in the Japanese yen relative to major currencies, with the most notable strength observed against the Swiss franc.

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