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A price test at 1.1615 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.1574.
Yesterday's comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials regarding the inadvisability of further monetary easing triggered a strengthening of the U.S. currency and a weakening of the European one.
Today, the absence of economic data from the eurozone suggests the possibility of a short-term correction in the euro, but it is unlikely that buyers will be able to recover all of yesterday's losses without favorable news. Long-term forecasts for the European currency remain pessimistic. Constant threats of economic recession, political challenges in France, and weak industrial growth in Germany are all reasons to continue selling the euro within the downtrend. As a result, today the euro may show a slight upward correction, but this should not give rise to excessive optimism. It is important to exercise caution and monitor news from the euro area that could instantly undermine this fragile increase.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Today, the euro can be bought upon reaching the price zone around 1.1579 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1603. At 1.1603, I plan to exit the market and also to sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. A bullish outlook on the euro is valid only as part of a correction. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1563 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This limits the downside potential of the pair and may lead to an upward reversal. Expected targets are 1.1579 and 1.1603.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1563 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1542, where I plan to exit the market and buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip move in the reverse direction from the level). Downward pressure on the pair can return at any moment today. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1579 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This limits the upside potential of the pair and may result in a downward reversal. Expected targets are 1.1563 and 1.1542.
A thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
A thick green line — the estimated level where taking profit is advisable or where profit can be fixed manually, since further growth above this level is unlikely
A thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
A thick red line — the estimated level where taking profit is advisable or where profit can be fixed manually, since further decline below this level is unlikely
MACD Indicator — When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones
Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must make very cautious decisions when entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, the best option is to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price volatility. If you decide to trade during data releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without using stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you avoid using money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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