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A test of the 152.87 level occurred when the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar, which resulted in a 35-pip rise in the pair.
The Japanese yen remained under pressure after additional U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about inflation yesterday, preferring a more cautious position on interest rates.
The market reacted instantly to such rhetoric: the yen—already influenced by the dovish political stance of the new Prime Minister—faced additional selling pressure.
The future direction of the USD/JPY pair will depend on how closely aligned the views of the central bank are with those of the new Prime Minister.
It is worth recalling that the Japanese central bank had been laying the groundwork for a more hawkish monetary policy, whereas the new Prime Minister supports a return to stimulus measures aimed at supporting economic growth.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 152.94 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 153.31 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.31, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip reversal from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and substantial pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.66 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal of the market. Price movement may continue toward 152.94 and 153.31.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below the 152.66 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 152.30 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 pip reversal from the level). It is best to sell from as high a point as possible. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 152.94 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and result in a downward market reversal. The expected targets are 152.66 and 152.30.
A thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
A thick green line — the estimated level where taking profit is advisable or where profit can be fixed manually, since further growth above this level is unlikely
A thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
A thick red line — the estimated level where taking profit is advisable or where profit can be fixed manually, since further decline below this level is unlikely
MACD Indicator — When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones
Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must make very cautious decisions when entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, the best option is to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price volatility. If you decide to trade during data releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without using stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you avoid using money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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