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The price test at 1.1646 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by nearly 30 pips.
Yesterday, the dollar briefly strengthened against the euro, but it did not prompt any significant technical changes in the market. No one seems to be seriously intervening in the market ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting starting today. The outcomes will be published tomorrow evening. Any signs of further policy easing will hurt the U.S. dollar, so serious purchases are not currently on anyone's mind.
Today, data on Germany's trade balance is expected in the first half of the day. Shortly afterward, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will speak. Data on Germany's trade balance traditionally draws the attention of investors and analysts, as it reflects the state of the eurozone's largest economy and its contribution to overall European growth. It is expected that the trade balance will remain positive, but any signs of a contraction may raise concerns about the slowdown in global demand and the impact of geopolitical factors on Germany's export orientation. Joachim Nagel's speech is also of significant interest. As president of the Bundesbank, he is an influential voice at the European Central Bank, and his comments on inflation, monetary policy, and the overall economic situation in the eurozone could substantially impact market sentiment.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Today, buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1653 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to 1.1680. At the 1.1680 level, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth for the euro can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1640 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase toward the opposite levels of 1.1653 and 1.1680 can be expected.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1640 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1614, where I intend to exit the market and buy back immediately (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today after two consecutive tests at 1.1653, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1640 and 1.1614 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.
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