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The EUR/USD currency pair showed no notable movements on Monday, and overall volatility was minimal. As anticipated, the report on European industrial production had little impact on the pair's movement throughout the day. The market made another attempt to continue the upward trend but quickly calmed down, recalling that tomorrow is a significant day. We are not joking. There hasn't been such a volume of important macroeconomic reports in one day for a long time. Of course, about a third of these reports should not even take place. The Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports are being released unplanned, two weeks late. Additionally, the ADP report has recently been published weekly, which does not increase its significance. However, even without these reports, today's macroeconomic data are sufficiently abundant to expect a "storm," and with data on the labor market and unemployment, a storm is guaranteed.
From a technical standpoint, the upward trend remains, but the technical picture is unlikely to hold significant importance today. Throughout the day, the market will respond to super-important and not-so-important reports, so movements can go in various directions, with no correlation to technical analysis. The remainder of the week will be equally tumultuous, so many traders might be surprised when they find out where the pair finishes the week.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the first trading signal was generated closer to the evening yesterday, but by then it was clear we would not see any movement. Thus, surpassing the 1.1750-1.1760 area was merely a formal buy signal.
The latest COT report was released last week and is dated November 18, so it is still outdated. The illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has long been "bullish;" the bears barely moved into the area of their own superiority at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office for the second time, the dollar has been dropping. We cannot say with 100% certainty that the decline of the American currency will continue, but current developments around the world suggest this is a possibility.
We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the euro; however, there are plenty of factors that would weaken the US dollar. The global downward trend is still present, but what importance does it have where prices have moved over the last 17 years? The dollar could rise if the global fundamental picture changes, but there are currently no signs of that happening.
The positioning of the red and blue lines on the indicator continues to indicate the preservation of the "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 8,000, while the number of shorts decreased by 17,400. Consequently, the net position increased by 25,400 contracts for the week. However, this data is outdated and has no value.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement, fully aligning with our expectations. As we warned, one should not rush to conclude that the upward trend has ended until it drops below the Senkou Span B line. The price remains within the daily sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830; therefore, one can still expect the euro to strengthen to 1.1800 in the near future. The euro's further fate will be determined around the upper line of the flat range.
For December 16, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1846-1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, and the Senkou Span B line (1.1619) and Kijun-sen (1.1694). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Do not forget to place the Stop Loss order at breakeven once the price has moved in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will safeguard against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.
On Tuesday, the Eurozone is scheduled to release indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as the ZEW economic sentiment indices. In the US, weekly ADP, Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate, business activity indices, and retail sales will be published. Movements tomorrow should be super volatile.
On Tuesday, traders may trade in the 1.1750-1.1760 range; however, the macroeconomic backdrop will be of great importance throughout the day. Due to strong and significant reports at certain moments, technical levels may be ignored, and the price may move erratically.
Support and Resistance Levels – Thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines – Lines from the Ichimoku indicator transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly. They are strong lines.
Extreme Levels – Thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow Lines – Trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT Charts – The size of the net position for each category of traders.
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