26.12.202517:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin stuck in deadlock

Bitcoin is ending 2025 in a deadlock. The cryptocurrency shows few signs of life, remaining in consolidation within the range of 84,000 to 94,000. An asset that has grown over the years due to hype, volatility, and quick fluctuations now lies in the shadow of American stock indices returning to record levels, while gold is ready to showcase its best performance since 1979. Apart from the price, this year has been quite notable for the digital asset.

Dynamics of Bitcoin and other assets in 2025

In 2025, the volume of cryptocurrency transactions quadrupled—from $2.17 billion to $8.6 billion. Major transactions included Coinbase's acquisition of the derivatives trading platform Deribit for $2.9 billion, Kraken's purchase of the American futures retail platform NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion, and Ripple's acquisition of the cryptocurrency prime broker Hidden Road for $1.25 billion.

The total number of transactions increased to 267, an 18% rise. While this may not seem as impressive as the volume itself, it's still a solid figure. When considering the widespread desire among companies engaged in digital assets to go public, a more friendly regulatory environment, the rollback of lawsuits against crypto companies, and the lifting of bans, 2025 can confidently be called a successful year for Bitcoin—aside from the price.

Dynamics of BTC/USD and the moving average

The arrival of institutional investors in the market led to reduced volatility. BTC/USD stopped being purchased simply because the asset was rising. Some refer to this period as one of maturity, as fears about the cryptocurrency disappearing from financial markets seemed to wane. However, the more significant factor was the surplus.

Crypto whales and long-term holders actively divested their Bitcoin. This represents the fastest token sell-off in at least five years. Supply surged while demand failed to absorb it. Previously popular specialized exchange-traded funds faced capital outflows.

Crypto treasury managers were hesitant to buy digital assets in a bear market. Even industry pioneer Michael Saylor's Strategy began forming reserves after two weeks of acquiring Bitcoin. To do this, the company raised $748 million through the issuance of common stock.

As a result of the cryptocurrency market transitioning to a surplus, the paths of BTC/USD and US stock indices diverged. Bitcoin, once associated with digital gold, hopelessly lagged behind traditional gold. It no longer qualifies as either a risky asset or a safe haven. In other words, it has become irrelevant. It is no surprise that Bitcoin concludes 2025 in a deadlock.

Technical analysis

Technically, the daily chart of BTC/USD continues to show consolidation within the range of 84,000 to 94,000. What is this? Accumulation of longs or distribution of shorts? The answer to this question may only come with Bitcoin's exit from this trading corridor. It may make sense to set sell orders at 84,000 and buy orders at 94,000.