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The test of the price at 1.1770 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 15 pips.
It seems that market players have adapted to President Trump's unconventional communication style despite his attacks on the Federal Reserve. Investors probably assume that dismissing the Fed Chair, as Trump stated during an interview yesterday, is unlikely before Powell's term ends in May of next year. Consequently, the EUR/USD currency pair remained within the channel, showing no pronounced direction.
Today also appears to be relatively quiet. The absence of economic reports from the Eurozone in the first half of the day suggests minimal volatility. This pause in the flow of macroeconomic news allows market participants to focus on technical analysis, which may have only an indirect impact on currency dynamics. Special attention, similar to yesterday, should be given to any unexpected statements from political figures or central bank leaders, as they can cause spikes in volatility even in the absence of scheduled reports.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro at around 1.1785 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1817. At point 1.1817, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be anticipated within the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I will also look to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1770 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected towards the levels of 1.1785 and 1.1817.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1770 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1745, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Some pressure on the pair may be noticeable today in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.
Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1785 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1770 and 1.1745.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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