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The test of the 157.82 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move above the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 30 pips.
Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by only 50,000, below economists' forecasts, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, which allowed the dollar to rise temporarily against the yen. This dissonance in economic indicators sparked a wave of analytical commentary. The market, on the one hand, saw a positive signal in the unemployment decline, indicating US economic resilience; on the other hand, the weakness in employment data raised concerns about the overall strength of economic growth. The absence of fundamental reports from Japan and a pause in commentary from Bank of Japan officials will allow the dollar to continue rising against the yen until policymakers again sound the alarm over the currency's weakness.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry point around 158.16 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 158.59 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.59, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important: before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 157.96 while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect moves toward the opposite levels 158.16 and 158.59.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a break below 157.96 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 157.63, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25-pip countermove from that level). It is better to sell at the highest possible price. Important: before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to fall from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 158.16 while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expect declines to the opposite levels, 157.96 and 157.63.
Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument
Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely
Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument
Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely
MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones
Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.
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