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The EUR/USD pair continued its decline on Friday, but late Monday night it made a sharp reversal in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 1.1645–1.1655 level. Thus, the growth process may continue today toward the corrective levels of 38.2% at 1.1686 and 23.6% at 1.1731. A rebound from either of these levels or a consolidation below the 1.1645–1.1648 level would work in favor of the US dollar and a resumption of the decline.
The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous wave, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bearish." In my view, the decline of the pair will not be prolonged or strong, but a break of the already bearish trend is now required to expect a bullish advance. According to the current chart picture, such a break would occur above the resistance level of 1.1795–1.1802 or after two consecutive bullish waves.
On Friday, bullish traders once again had an excellent opportunity to launch an attack, which they failed to use yet again. US labor market and unemployment data turned out to be contradictory, but still weak. Nevertheless, bears continued to attack throughout the day rather than bulls, and the dollar continued its slow rise. In my view, there can be only one explanation for this paradox—geopolitics. Donald Trump has already carried out one military operation in 2026, which resulted in the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Now Trump promises to overthrow the authorities in Cuba, Mexico, and Iran. Of course, there are "buts" everywhere, as the US president does not refuse negotiations and deals. The problem is that in other countries, deals imposed by the White House are not welcomed. As geopolitical tensions in the world rise again, some traders prefer to wrap their assets in the safe dollar. But, as we can see, far from everyone does so, since over the past year the dollar has no longer been the currency that everyone buys at the first sign of danger. Plus, economic data from the US rarely bring joy. Last week, we saw only one good report—the ISM index in the services sector.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the support level of 1.1649–1.1680. Another rebound from this zone would work in favor of the EU currency and some growth toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. A consolidation below the support level of 1.1649–1.1680 would increase the chances of a continuation of the decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional players opened 3,515 long positions and closed 1,832 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies and is only strengthening over time. The total number of long positions concentrated in the hands of speculators now stands at 298 thousand, while short positions total 135 thousand. This is more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were getting rid of short positions and building up long ones. Then the "shutdown" began, and now we see the same picture: professional traders continue to increase long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for America. For example, the deterioration of the labor market. Traders fear a loss of the Fed's independence in 2026 under pressure from Trump and against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's resignation.
US and Eurozone Economic Calendar:
On January 12, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair will be possible on Monday on rebounds from the levels of 1.1686 and 1.1731, or on a consolidation below the 1.1645–1.1648 zone on the hourly chart with targets at 1.1612 and 1.1566. Buying became possible after a consolidation above the 1.1645–1.1648 level on the hourly chart with targets at 1.1686 and 1.1731.
Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1492–1.1805 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.
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