13.01.202609:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBPUSD: simple trading tips for beginner traders for January 13. Review of yesterday's Forex trades

Trade review and trading tips for the British pound

The price test at 1.3455 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved far below the zero line, limiting the pair's downside potential.

Yesterday's slowdown in the dollar's decline happened after a number of Republican senators expressed disagreement with Donald Trump's statements toward Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who was again accused, including with criminal prosecution. This unexpected turn, caused by political instability, supported the weakened dollar, allowing it to recover slightly after the preceding wave of sales.

This morning, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to give a public speech, which may affect the pair's direction. His comments are expected to touch on the future strategy of monetary policy, which will almost certainly provoke increased volatility in the GBP/USD currency pair. Market participants will focus on any indications regarding a possible adjustment of the key interest rate. Investors will try to understand how aggressively the BoE intends to fight inflation and what steps it is prepared to take to stimulate economic growth. If Bailey signals readiness to continue pausing in the rate-cutting cycle, this may support the pound. However, if he expresses concern about economic growth prospects, this may negatively affect the British currency.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mostly rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today at an entry point around 1.3476 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3512 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3512, I intend to exit longs and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-pip countermove from that level). Expect pound growth today only after a hawkish stance from Bailey. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3455 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposing levels 1.3476 and 1.3512.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below 1.3455 (red line on the chart), which would trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3417, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip countermove from that level). Pound sellers may act if the BoE chief takes a dovish stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3476 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. One can expect a decline toward the opposing levels 1.3455 and 1.3417.

What is on the chart

• Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument
• Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument
• Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones
• Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
• Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.