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On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair continues to move within Imbalance 12. This is a pattern that should either trigger a reaction or be invalidated. The situation painfully resembles that of the EUR/USD pair. There is simply no movement, and traders see no grounds for either long or short positions. As a result, the pound is currently stalled, with no clear trigger for movement. Since the start of the new year, the news background has already provided several opportunities for strong attacks by both bulls and bears. There has been no shortage of events, but none of them have satisfied traders. Consequently, we see no movement, no reaction to patterns, the bullish trend is on pause—just like all trading activity in the market.
At present, bullish Imbalance 12 remains the only workable pattern. If it is invalidated, this will not lead to an immediate cancellation of the bullish trend. It would only postpone the pound's next upward move. However, at the moment, a new bullish signal could still be formed within this pattern. Bullish traders had to wait for help from Trump in order to launch a new offensive, but the traders themselves are not showing much activity. Unfortunately, all we are seeing right now is market passivity.
The technical picture is currently as follows. The bullish trend in the pound can be considered completed, while the bullish trend in the euro is not. Both the euro and the pound may form new bullish signals along the current trend in the near future, but given the current level of market activity, this will be a challenge. Donald Trump has dealt another blow to the dollar, but traders reacted to it very superficially. Thus, I still expect growth in the British pound, but that growth will only occur if the market starts to properly price in events, news, and reports.
On Tuesday, traders learned about the level of December inflation and were disappointed that there were no changes compared to November. If inflation had accelerated, it would have been possible to conclude that the FOMC might adopt a hawkish stance in the first half of 2026. If inflation had slowed, a rate cut could have been expected as early as late January. But the report showed neither. I would say that traders moved prices more actively before this report than after it.
In the United States, the overall news background remains such that, in the long term, nothing but a decline in the dollar can be expected. The situation in the U.S. remains quite difficult. The government shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans agreed on funding only through the end of January, which is just three weeks away. U.S. labor market data continue to disappoint. The last three FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions, and the latest data suggest that the pause in monetary easing will be short-lived. Trump's military aggression, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, and Colombia, as well as the initiation of criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, perfectly complement the current picture unfolding in the United States. In my view, bulls have everything they need to continue a new offensive and return to last year's highs.
A bearish trend would require a strong and consistently positive news background for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as the trade balance would remain in deficit in that case. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the fairly strong decline in September and October. Too many risk factors continue to hang like dead weight over the dollar. What exactly are bears planning to use to push the pound further down if a bearish trend is supposedly forming now? If new bearish patterns emerge, a potential decline in the pound sterling could be reconsidered, but at the moment there are none.
News calendar for the U.S. and the United Kingdom:
The economic calendar for January 15 contains four entries, none of which are considered important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday will be weak.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
For the pound, the picture remains favorable for traders. Four bullish patterns have already been worked out, signals have been formed, and traders can maintain long positions. I see no information reasons for a sharp decline in the pound in the near future.
A resumption of the bullish trend could have been expected as early as from Imbalance 1. At this point, the pound has reacted to Imbalance 1, Imbalance 10, Imbalance 11, and Imbalance 12. In the near future, another bullish signal may be formed within Imbalance 12. As a potential upward target, I am considering the 1.3725 level, although the pound could rise much higher in 2026. The main thing is that trading finally resumes after the New Year holidays. If bearish patterns emerge, the trading strategy may need to be revised, but at present there are no grounds for doing so.
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