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The GBP/USD currency pair also traded sharply lower for several hours on Thursday. As with the euro pair, the macroeconomic background had nothing to do with the pair's fall. The US reports were released three hours after the decline began, and the British figures were positive and should have prompted a rise. Thus, the market first ignored the positive reports from Britain and then those from America.
If, in the case of the euro, the current movement is explained by the flat on the daily TF, the fall of the British pound is explained by the euro's decline. Recall that the euro and the pound are highly correlated, so if the euro falls, in most cases the pound falls as well. As we already said, the euro is falling purely on technical factors of the daily and hourly charts. And since the euro is falling, the pound falls with it, regardless of macroeconomic data.
Technically, the trend for the pound is also downward now, since the price is below the Ichimoku indicator lines. In recent weeks, the British currency tried to avoid a new undeserved drop, but in the end, it did not hold.
On the 5-minute TF, an excellent sell signal was formed yesterday. As soon as the pound showed a more or less strong trending move, the signal followed, was precisely executed, and produced profit. During the European session, the price rebounded from the 1.3437–1.3440 area and then, over several hours, fell to the 1.3369–1.3377 area, where the southward move ended. Thus, traders on the short position could earn about 50 pips.
COT reports for the British pound show that, in recent years, the mood of commercial traders has fluctuated. The red and blue lines, representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, constantly cross and, in most cases, are near zero. Currently, the lines are diverging from each other, and non-commercial traders dominate with... short positions. Speculators are selling the pound more often, but as we have already said, it does not matter how low the demand for the British currency is. Demand for the US dollar is often even lower.
The dollar continues to fall due to Donald Trump's policies, as is evident in the weekly TF (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and the Fed will, in any case, cut the rate within the next 12 months. Demand for the dollar will fall one way or another. According to the latest COT report (as of January 6) for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,000 BUY contracts and 4,300 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased over the week by 2,700 contracts.
In 2025, the pound rose quite strongly, but it should be understood that the reason is one: Donald Trump's policy. Once this reason is neutralized, the dollar may begin to strengthen, but no one knows when.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair, following EUR/USD, began forming a downtrend. However, the duration of the pound's decline depends entirely on the duration of the euro's decline. We believe that the pound's medium-term rise will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental background. However, the market is currently in a very strange state, as if it does not understand what to do next and how to interpret the large volume of incoming information.
For January 16, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3201–1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763. The Senkou Span B (1.3478) and Kijun-sen (1.3429) lines may also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price has moved 20 pips in the favorable direction. Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Thursday, no important events or reports are scheduled in the UK, while in the US, only the industrial production report will be released. The market has been ignoring all macroeconomic data for at least several weeks in a row, so today we do not expect a consistent, strong reaction to this not-very-important report.
Today, traders may consider new short positions targeting 1.3307 if the market closes below the 1.3369–1.3377 area. Long positions will become relevant if the price bounces off the 1.3369–1.3377 area with a target of the 1.3429–1.3437 area.
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