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The GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the British pound, but the advance faded very quickly. Traders continue to increase purchases of the euro, but the British pound seems to have been forgotten. The current situation is ambiguous. In my view, the pound should continue its growth, however, there are no clear technical reference points at the moment, and the bullish impulse faded before it even had time to develop. Still, this is not the biggest problem for traders.
Let me remind you that trading should not be based on news, which may have one tone today and a completely different one tomorrow. The current week is a vivid example of this. Over the weekend, Donald Trump announced the introduction of new tariffs, and by Thursday they were already canceled. And the market, by the way, ignored the fact that the tariffs were lifted. It also ignored the U.S. third-quarter GDP report, and unlike the euro, there are no bullish patterns in the pound that could currently be traded. Thus, the pound may continue to rise in tandem with the euro, but while the euro has a pattern, the pound has no grounds for opening long positions.
Since the bullish trend in the euro remains intact, in my view, the bullish trend in the pound also remains intact. I cannot imagine a bullish trend in the euro occurring simultaneously with a bearish trend in the pound. However, there are no workable bullish patterns at the moment, and the chances of their formation this week are also slim. There have been no liquidity sweeps and no price movements that could lead to the formation of zones of interest. In the long term, I still expect the pair to rise.
On Thursday, traders learned that the U.S. economy grew by 4.4% in the third quarter—and they did not react at all. It seems that markets no longer trust Trump-era statistics after he fired the previous head of the statistics bureau and appointed his own person. I am not saying the figures are incorrect, but aside from GDP reports, there is currently little positive data coming out of the U.S. In the UK, an inflation report was released this week that should have strongly supported bulls, but traders ignored that report as well.
In the U.S., the overall news background remains such that, in the long term, nothing but further dollar weakness can be expected. The situation in the U.S. remains quite challenging. The government shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans agreed on funding only through the end of January, which expires in ten weeks. U.S. labor market data continue to disappoint. The last three FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions, and the latest data suggest that any pause in monetary easing will be short-lived. Trump's military aggression, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, and Colombia, and the initiation of criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell all perfectly complement the current picture of an "American political crisis." In my view, bulls have everything they need to launch a new offensive and push prices back toward last year's highs.
A bearish trend would require strong and sustained positive news for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as the trade balance would remain in deficit in that case. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the fairly sharp decline seen in September and October. Too many risk factors continue to hang like dead weight over the dollar. What would bears use to push the pound further down if, at present, a bullish trend is still forming? If new bearish patterns appear, a potential decline in the pound sterling could be reconsidered, but for now, there are none.
U.S. and UK Economic Calendar:
On January 23, the economic calendar contains six events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may emerge in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
For the pound, the overall picture remains clear; what is missing are patterns and signals. The bullish advance has stalled, bears have moved on the offensive, but how long they can maintain pressure given the current news background is unclear. I believe it will not be for long.
A resumption of the bullish trend can be expected only from new bullish patterns or after liquidity is swept from bearish swings. The nearest such swings are currently the lows of December 9 and December 17. As a target for potential growth, I continue to consider the level of 1.3725, though the pound could rise much higher in 2026—especially given the events of the first three weeks of the year. If bearish patterns form, short trades will also be possible, but within a bullish trend I prefer buying rather than selling.
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