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The test of the price at 1.3545 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and missed all the upward movement.
The dollar collapsed after the risk of a U.S. government shutdown increased. Traders instantly reacted to the growing uncertainty by offloading dollars and moving to safer assets. The cause for concern is the persistent reluctance of some members of Congress to approve funding for the Department of Homeland Security due to the operations of ICE, which was created by Trump to combat immigrants. The disagreements pertain to the MIB's policy on border security, key issues that divide the U.S. political landscape. If a compromise is not reached by January 31, many important functions of ICE and the MIB may be suspended. A new shutdown will pose significant economic risks to the U.S. and the global economy.
Given that there are no reports from the UK today, further growth of the pair can be expected. A sustainable consolidation above the weekly high will serve as an additional signal of continued growth. On the other hand, if the upward momentum weakens and quotes start to correct downward, it is important to monitor the nearest support levels. Overall, the technical picture for GBP/USD looks quite positive, but many factors—especially political—must be taken into account when making a final decision, and caution should be exercised.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point around 1.3667 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.3694 (the thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3694, I intend to exit the market and open sell positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Growth in the pound is expected today, in continuation of the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3652 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. An increase can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3667 and 1.3694.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3652 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3626, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It's unlikely that pound sellers will manifest strongly. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its decline from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3667 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected to the opposing levels of 1.3652 and 1.3626.
The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;
The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;
The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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