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The price test at 1.1865 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy euros. As a result, the pair rose by 30 pips.
The dollar ignored a strong US durable goods report, continuing to lose ground against the euro. This weakness in the American currency, contrary to expectations, reflects deeper investor concerns about the global economy's prospects amid various geopolitical conflicts and threats from Donald Trump. Despite strong order figures indicating confidence among American manufacturers and consumers, the market bets that the Federal Reserve will have to ease its monetary policy sooner than planned.
With no economic reports from the Eurozone today, the focus will be on the speech by the President of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. However, it is unlikely that his speech will bring new information. Traders will closely monitor his statements to catch signals on the pace and scale of interest rate changes. Any signs that the European Central Bank may return to interest rate cuts could trigger a decline in the euro's exchange rate.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, buying euros can be done upon reaching the price around 1.1890 (the green line on the chart), with a target rise to 1.1922. At the point of 1.1922, I plan to exit the market and sell euros immediately in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the euro to rise as the bullish market continues. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an ascent from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1870 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be anticipated toward opposing levels of 1.1890 and 1.1922.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1870 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1840, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Strong pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its descent from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1890 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1870 and 1.1840.
The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;
The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;
The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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