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The price test at 1.1900 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros and missed the upward movement.
The American currency sharply declined following President Donald Trump's statement that he is pleased with the recent weakening of the dollar. Weak US data also put additional pressure on the currency. The depreciation of the dollar could theoretically boost U.S. exports; however, it may also provoke inflationary pressures. Maintaining a balance between these two aspects will be a priority for the Fed in the near future, which we will certainly learn about during today's committee meeting.
In the first half of the day, only the consumer climate index data from Germany is expected, which is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. Overall, the day looks relatively calm in terms of macroeconomic reports. However, in the second half of the day, attention should be paid to the Chair of the Federal Reserve's speech. His rhetoric, especially regarding the prospects for inflation and future monetary policy, could significantly influence the US dollar's dynamics.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today upon reaching the entry point around 1.2006 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.2048. At the 1.2048 level, I plan to exit the market and sell euros immediately in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can be expected to continue as the bullish market persists. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1974 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be anticipated toward opposing levels of 1.2006 and 1.2048.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros today after reaching 1.1974 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1940, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Strong pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its descent from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.2006 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward opposing levels of 1.1974 and 1.1940.
The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;
The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;
The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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