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The price test at 1.3708 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.
The sharp decline in the US consumer confidence index, as published, came as an unpleasant surprise for traders who had expected resilience in the American economy. The index, which reflects consumer optimism about the economic situation and their willingness to spend, collapsed below forecast levels, raising concerns that economic growth in the country could slow. Negative data from the US pressured the dollar, making it less attractive. The British pound reacted to the weakening US currency with an increase, as investors began to shift their assets from the dollar to the pound.
Given the lack of macroeconomic data from the UK today, it is quite likely that the upward movement of GBP/USD will continue in line with the prevailing trend. Additionally, geopolitical conditions should be considered. Any unexpected events, such as heightened tensions or the introduction of new economic restrictions, could also prompt investors to exit the dollar, further increasing pressure on the US currency.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3810 (the green line on the chart) with a target rise to the level of 1.3849 (the thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3849, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts immediately in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the pound can be anticipated as the trend continues. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its ascent from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3786 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected toward opposing levels of 1.3810 and 1.3849.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it reaches 1.3786 (the red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3752 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips from the level). Sellers of the pound are unlikely to make a strong showing. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its descent from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3810 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward opposite levels of 1.3786 and 1.3752.
The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;
The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;
The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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