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During Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1889. Thus, the decline may continue today toward the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 1.1830. A consolidation above 1.1889 would favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1963.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous wave's low, and the new upward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Therefore, the trend remains "bullish." The bulls have taken a short pause within a large-scale advance that would have been impossible without Donald Trump. Trump has escalated tensions both globally and within the U.S. to the limit, and markets continue reacting by fleeing from the risky U.S. currency with uncertain economic prospects.
On Wednesday, the news background clearly supported the bears, as both U.S. reports—expected to disappoint traders—turned out far more optimistic than anticipated. According to the Nonfarm Payrolls report, 130,000 new jobs were created in January, which strongly aligned with forecasts. The unemployment rate showed an even more surprising figure—a decline to 4.3%. As a result, the bears gained an opportunity to launch an attack that ended very quickly.
Unfortunately, many traders overlooked another equally important component of the Nonfarm Payrolls report—the revision of previous figures. First, the December figure was revised down by 2,000. This is minor, but still noteworthy. Second, the payrolls figure for the entire year 2025 was revised. It turned out that only 181,000 jobs were created in total—for the whole year. Recall that 180,000 is considered a solid figure for a single month, not an entire year. Such weak labor market results have not been seen since the pandemic. But back then, it was a forced downturn—what about now? As a result, the decent January figure was overshadowed by the revision for the entire year 2025.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1919 according to the new Fibonacci grid and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. Therefore, the decline may continue toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1813. A consolidation above 1.1919 would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the 1.2040–1.2066 resistance level. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 11,965 Long positions and closed 19,262 Short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish," supported by Donald Trump and his policies, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of Long positions held by speculators now stands at 302,000, compared to 138,000 Short positions. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players reduced Short positions and increased Long positions. Then came the "shutdown," and now we observe the same pattern again: professional traders continue building Long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous long-term structural problems for the U.S.—for example, deterioration in the labor market and a decline in global reputation. Traders are also concerned about the potential loss of Federal Reserve independence in 2026 and Trump's geopolitical ambitions.
News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On February 12, the economic calendar contains two entries, neither of which I consider important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be weak.
EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:
Selling the pair was possible after a close below 1.1889 on the hourly chart with a target at 1.1830. These positions can be kept open today. New buying opportunities may arise after a rebound from 1.1830 on the hourly chart or after a close above 1.1889 with a target at 1.1963.
Fibonacci levels are built from 1.1805–1.1578 on the hourly chart and from 1.1919–1.1471 on the 4-hour chart.
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