20.02.202619:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, on the last day of the week, Friday, the European Central Bank released data on negotiated wage rates in the eurozone for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025. According to the published figures, negotiated wage rates in the eurozone increased by 2.95% year-on-year in Q4, following a revised 1.89% increase in the previous period.

The rise in negotiated wage rates in the EU has had little impact on the euro (EUR), and the EUR/USD pair continues to show weakness.

The ECB's methodology for calculating negotiated wage growth covers a limited number of countries. The aggregated eurozone statistics are based on data from nine countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Finland, Austria, and Portugal.

The indicator relies on data regarding negotiated monthly wages and combines monthly and quarterly series using non-harmonized national data from individual countries.

On the U.S. dollar side, expected macroeconomic labor market indicators suggest unexpectedly strong resilience. In addition, the January FOMC meeting minutes and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have prompted investors to revise their monetary policy expectations, reducing assumptions of rapid easing.

Combined with rising geopolitical tensions, this supports the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, which today set a new monthly high and continues to put pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

At the same time, updated expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank are weakening the euro and further reinforcing the pair's downward bias.

Today, for better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data, which could provide new momentum to the pair.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair has fallen below the 50-day SMA today, favoring the bears. In addition, the Relative Strength Index has dropped below 50, which also strengthens the bearish outlook. If the pair fails to hold support at 1.1740, it could accelerate its decline toward the round level of 1.1700. However, if prices move back above the 50-day SMA, a test of the round 1.1800 level is quite likely.

The table below shows the percentage change of the euro against major currencies for the current day. The euro showed the greatest weakness against the British pound.