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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair made sluggish attempts on Friday to consolidate below the support level of 1.3437–1.3470, but this became possible only late Monday night amid events related to the war in Iran. At present, the decline in quotes continues toward the support level of 1.3352–1.3362. A consolidation below this zone would allow traders to expect a continued drop toward the next corrective levels of 1.3294 and 1.3240.
The wave situation remains "bearish." The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. To shift the trend to "bullish," a consolidation above the latest peak of 1.3573 or two consecutive bullish waves are required. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent months, while geopolitics is giving bears a complete advantage in the market.
The news background on Friday did not foreshadow anything negative for the pound, but the new week began with another collapse. I believe everyone clearly understands that the U.S. dollar is currently strengthening due to the military conflict in the Middle East. Just a couple of hours ago, it became known that Iran launched missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Turkey, and Israel is preparing to conduct a military operation in Lebanon. Thus, the number of countries involved in the war has increased to eleven. This week, important reports will be released in the United States and the European Union, but I strongly doubt they will be of primary importance to traders. It appears that until the Middle East conflict begins to subside, the market will trade mainly on geopolitical factors. The pound, which in recent weeks repeatedly had opportunities to start rising, is falling as if the trade war had ended and Donald Trump had been impeached. However, I repeat: it is geopolitics that is currently pushing risk-sensitive currencies down and the dollar up.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the upper boundary of the downward trend channel and returned to the support level of 1.3369–1.3435. A rebound from this zone would again favor the British currency and renewed growth. A close below 1.3369–1.3435 would favor continued decline toward the 1.3118–1.3140 level. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bearish over the last reporting week, which under the current circumstances no longer looks accidental. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 14,802, while Short positions decreased by 134. The gap between Long and Short positions is now effectively 67 thousand versus 124 thousand. In recent months, bears have dominated more often, although the situation with euro contracts is directly opposite. I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but now everything will depend not on economic indicators or Trump's trade policy, but on the duration and scale of the war in the Middle East.
Over the past year, the pound looked like a safer currency compared to the dollar—more stable and with a clearer economic outlook. However, in recent months, a correction began while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the Middle East conflict started escalating almost daily. Negotiations on an agreement between the U.S. and Iran have failed, so the dollar is now rising due to geopolitics. How long the dollar continues to rise will depend on developments in the Middle East.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI (15:00 UTC).
On March 2, the economic calendar contains one fairly important entry. The information background will influence market sentiment on Monday, but geopolitics will play the key role in shaping trader sentiment.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Short positions were possible after a close on the hourly chart below 1.3437–1.3470, targeting 1.3352–1.3362. This target has almost been reached. Short trades may remain open with targets at 1.3294 and 1.3240 if a close occurs below 1.3352–1.3362. I am not considering long positions under current circumstances.
Fibonacci retracement grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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